If you renovated your kitchen in 2019 and are thinking about doing it again, the quotes you're seeing now might feel like a mistake. A project that cost $35,000 six years ago routinely runs $50,000-$60,000 today in the same city. What happened, and is it ever going to reverse?
The short answer
Canadian renovation costs have risen roughly 30-50% since 2020, depending on project type and region. The increase is driven by four factors that all hit at once: material costs, labour shortages, regulatory changes, and sustained demand. Most of these aren't going away.
Material costs: still elevated
Lumber, drywall, insulation, and fixtures all saw dramatic price increases during 2020-2022. Most materials have come down from their peaks but haven't returned to pre-pandemic levels. Quartz and engineered stone countertops are roughly 25% more than 2019 levels. Appliances are 15-30% more expensive. Even basic items like paint and fasteners cost noticeably more.
Labour: the real driver
Canada has a skilled trades shortage that's been building for a decade and accelerated sharply post-2020. BuildForce Canada estimates the country needs roughly 300,000 new construction workers by 2033. Licensed plumbers and electricians who earned $60-$75 per hour in 2019 now routinely quote $100-$150+ per hour in major Canadian cities. Even general labour has risen 30-40%.
Regulatory changes add cost
Building codes have tightened significantly in several provinces. BC's Energy Step Code requires new construction and major renovations to meet stricter energy performance standards. Ontario's updated building code requires additional fire-safety provisions in basement suites. These changes produce more efficient, safer homes — but they add 5-15% to project costs.
Will it come back down?
Material costs may ease slightly if global supply chains stabilize. But the labour situation is structural — training new skilled tradespeople takes years, and the demographics of retiring workers mean the shortage will persist for at least another decade. The realistic expectation: renovation costs may stabilize at current levels but are unlikely to return to 2019 prices.
What this means for your planning
Don't use old quotes or online calculators that haven't been updated since 2020. Build a larger contingency into your budget — 20% minimum rather than the old 10% rule. Book contractors further ahead than you used to; quality trades are often scheduled 6-12 months out for major work.